In the week ending 30 Sep, the M1 Brent futures contract saw highs of $70.72/bbl (26 Sep) before falling to $67.54/bbl on close; a net increase was seen from 23 Sep levels. The Dangote Refinery dismissed 800 workers, resulting in a launch of strikes by Nigerian trade union PENGASSAN on 26 Sep. Prices began falling as PENGASSAN reached an agreement with Dangote and the Nigerian government while OPEC+ headlines rumoured a 500kb/d hike in production over 3 months, later to be debunked by the producer group. RBOB futures and ICE LS gasoil futures followed a similar pattern to crude, finding a net rally with support early in the week before peaking on 26 Sep and falling to $1.98/bbl and $696.20/mt, respectively, on close.
This week in Brent, we anticipate money managers and other reportable players to trim their length. In gasoil futures, we expect producer/merchants to add to both their long and short positions. In contrast, we anticipate producer/merchants to exit their positions in RBOB futures with added length by money managers. Overall, we expect a risk-on week for players in gasoil, but a risk-off week in Brent and RBOB.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
