In the week ending 03 December, money managers took a risk-off approach in the crude futures benchmarks (Brent and WTI), removing both long and short positions. The combined positions showed an addition in length of 28.9mb (+7%) and a 9.1mb reduction in shorts (-5%). Overall, longs have increased in four of the last five weeks, while shorts have decreased in four of the last five weeks. This supported the long:short ratio from 2.30:1.00 to 2.69:1.00 (22nd percentile for all weeks since 2013), which remains relatively short historically.
Money managers got longer in anticipation that OPEC+ was delaying their output hikes, which would serve to tighten global oil balances. Delaying for the third time, the unwinding of the voluntary cuts will now begin in April 2025 and until September 2026, which would flatten the slope of the m/m increase. As the flat price in front-month Brent stabilises in the low 70s, the OPEC+ decision did not shift the fundamental outlook for prices to move strongly either way. There remains a weak short-term macroeconomic outlook and uncertainty ahead of President-elect Trump taking office.
