Due to the US government shutdown, there is no CFTC COT data for the week ending 21 Oct. This includes WTI, RBOB, Heating Oil, and Henry Hub.Â
In the week ending 21 Oct, Brent futures fell from $63.56/bbl on 14 Oct to lows of $60.40/bbl on 17 Oct amid rising US-China trade tensions and concerns of a supply glut pressuring sentiment. Prices met some support at this level, recovering to $61.32/bbl on 21 Oct.
Open interest increased in the week ending 21 Oct, by 129mb (+4% w/w) to reach 3,103mb.
Net long managed-by-money positioning decreased for the fifth consecutive week, down 58mb (-53% w/w), falling to 51mb. This marks the largest percentage decrease since Oct 2024 and sits well below the yearly and 5-year averages of 186mb and 199mb, respectively. Net long positioning has been pressured by speculative players trimming longs and adding 45mb (+30% w/w) to their shorts, marking the most significant percentage increase in speculative shorts since April 2025.
For the second consecutive week, producers/merchants added to both their longs (+89mb, +8%) and shorts (+57mb, +4%) in the week ending 21 Oct. Across-the-board increases to exposure suggest that these players remained risk-on in the week ending 21 Oct, signalling hedging efforts from producers and refiners.
Other reportable players also remained risk-on in the week ending 21 Oct, adding to longs (+16mb, +9%) and shorts (+1mb, +0.31%). This increase in length may reflect these players providing liquidity to the risk-off speculative longs.
