Morning Macro 5th December
Copper rallies another +2.3% to new all-time highs as the markets new favourite trade. Silver and Japanese yields continue trending higher too. Global yields starting to grind higher too with the U.S. 2s/10s curve steepening to 58bp. While the dollar finally has a positive day after its 9-day decline – matching the longest slide in 30 years.
US PLANS MORE STAKES IN MINERALS COMPANIES, TRUMP OFFICIAL SAYS
First Google, now Amazon – *AMAZON SAYS NEW CHIPS ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE THAN NVIDIA’S
UK NOV. CONSTRUCTION PMI FALLS TO 39.4; FORECAST 44.6
India cuts rates to 5.25% as expected as central bank flags ‘weakness in some key economic indicators.
Mixed signals from secondary U.S. employment data:
- U.S. small businesses shed 120,000 jobs in November, the steepest decline since May 2020, per ADP.
- US Layoffs are running at crisis pace. U.S. companies announced 153,074 job cuts in October, nearly TRIPLING from 2024. It was the WORST October in 22 years. YTD, layoffs have reached 1,099,500, up +65% YoY, nearing GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS levels
- Jobless claims fall to 191k, estimated 220k, much stronger than expected.
- U.S. temporary hiring has re-accelerated, perhaps an early signal we may be coming out of the slowdown. (Chart 1, Steno Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg)
Russell 2000 Index +15% ytd, Profitable Russell: +9.7%, Unprofitable Russell: +45% ….hhmmm!
Pay more, get less: “US sales on Black Friday hit $18 billion, up 3% compared with a year earlier…. But US shoppers purchased 2% fewer items at checkout, and with average prices up 7%, shoppers made 1% fewer online orders.” (Chart 2, Census Bureau, Bianco Research)
ANTHROPIC’S CEO WARNS THAT SOME AI GIANTS ARE TAKING RECKLESS, HUNDREDS-OF-BILLIONS SPENDING RISKS ON DATA CENTERS AND CHIPS, SAYING THE INDUSTRY IS GAMBLING ON UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC PAYOFFS.
Oklo, is now up +24% this week after Jensen Huang said the future of AI will be powered by “small nuclear reactors.”
Data today – US PCE deflator (inflation), UniMich consumer confidence
