The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has risen this morning, from $60.70/bbl at 08:00 BST to $61.52/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto has said that Japan will approach Russian energy imports based on its own national interest. Japan has agreed in line with other G7 nations to phase out Russian oil imports and claims to be consistently reducing its Russian dependence. In the Red Sea, Reuters has reported that a Cameroon-flagged LPG tanker has exploded off the coast of Yemen. The EU naval mission EUNAVFOR has confirmed the rescue of 24 of 26 crew members and claims that the explosion was ‘accidental in nature;’ however, investigations are still ongoing. Insurers have reportedly begun reassessing risk premiums for vessels looking to pass the Bab el-Mandeb as operators reconsider delays and diversions for upcoming energy shipments. In China, a Reuters report has said that crude oil stockpiles have taken a dive to roughly 570kb/d in September, down 1mb/d from August. Chinese crude imports dropped to 11.5mb/d in September, the lowest level seen since January 2025. In Norway, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate has reported that the country’s oil production has exceeded an official forecast by 5.4% y/y, while gas has fallen behind by 1.9% y/y. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.16/bbl and -$0.06/bbl, respectively.
Crude
This morning in Dated we saw selling of Cal Nov 17-21 at $0.03/bbl and buying of 10-14 Cal Nov CFD at $0.03/bbl. We also saw a refiner selling Cal Nov 1-5 Dec CFD low at $0.06/bbl. However, we did see continued bidding of 3-7 Nov 2w from a fund and 3-7 Cal Nov, although a refiner later offered the 3-7 Nov 2w. We also saw 17-21 Cal Dec traded up to $0.09/bbl, as well as buy side interest in 10-16 Nov vs Cal Nov and 24-28 Nov bid at $0.05/bbl from a major.
Fuel Oil
This morning iin VLSFO, both front crack was stronger this morning, with front Sing crack traded up to $6.10/bbl and Euro crack traded up to $1.65/bbl. We saw a lot of buying in front Euro crack which caused the front Sing 0.5 E/W to be better offered, trading from $28.50/mt to $28/mt. Front Euro structure were well bid in Nov/Dec, as we saw buying from -$1.25/mt to -$0.75/mt. Structure down the curve were also supported off the back of the buying in the front and stronger crude. Post window, there was selling in Dec and Jan Sing crack, as a result, front Sing crack remained better offered at $6.10/bbl.
In HSFO, front barge crack saw sell side interests at open at -$2.90/bbl, the selling continued in the window which caused it to trade down to -$3.15/bbl. As a result, front barge structure was slightly weaker, with Nov/Dec traded down to $8.75/mt. In 380, front structure also saw selling with Nov/Dec trading down to -$0.75/mt. Front crack was a touch softer, trading from -$3.55/bbl to -$3.75/bbl. Front 380 E/W saw mixed interests, with selling in Dec at $5/mt initially but then saw bids in front E/W at -$4/mt as the morning progressed.
Distillates
This morning in distillates, prompt Sing gasoil spreads sold off initially, with Nov/Dec opening at $1.66/bbl before being hit down to $1.55/bbl, then turning better bid and trading up to $1.66/bbl post-window. The E/W weakened in Nov, trading down from -$20/mt to -$21/mt before being lifted on screen at -$20.75/mt and then down to last trading -$21.25/mt. The Nov regrade rallied initially, trading from $0.60/bbl to be lifted at $0.65/bbl on screen before turning better offered and falling to be hit at $0.51/bbl post-window, while the Nov/Dec kero rallied from $1.55/bbl up to $1.61/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off initially Nov/Jan moving from $15.75/mt down to $14.75/mt before rallying up to $16.50/mt post-window, while the Dec crack traded down to $23.10/bbl before rallying to $23.80/mt. Heating oil spreads strengthened, while HOGOs traded rangebound, with the Nov HOGO between 14.4c/gal and 14.7c/gal, last at 14.5c/gal.
Gasoline
This morning in gasoline, MOC was bid with flat price trading $72.80/bbl end window. Front 92 cracks weakened from $12.20/bbl to $12.05/bbl. Front spreads were offered with Nov/Dec trading down from $1.63/bbl to $1.58/bbl. E/W softened from -$1.60/bbl to -$1.85/bbl. Cracks were bid with Nov trading at $13.82/mt and lots of interest in Q1 at $10.70/mt. Spreads traded down from $22.50/mt to $21.75/mt during the window, but then recovered back to $22.50/mt for the afternoon.
Naphtha
This morning in naphtha, flat price traded end window at $536/mt with MOC better bid. MOPJ spreads were strong with Nov/Dec trading up from $3.50/mt to $3.75/mt. We also saw flat price buying end window with Dec cracks bid at -$0.85/bbl. E/W saw sell side interest in Jan, trading at $27/mt. Naphtha cracks were slightly stronger, firming from -$4.45/bbl to -$4.40/bbl with Q1 bid at -$4.70/bbl. Spreads were stable, with Nov/Dec trading at -$0.25/mt.
Morning Macro
- The Nasdaq and gold both make new all-time highs while yields edge lower, with the U.S. 10-year now trading below 4.00% at 3.97%.
- OIS is now pricing 51bp cuts by year end (last meet Dec 10th) so starting to sniff out the chance of a third cut.
- The collapse of First Brands alone has triggered more than $4 billion in losses, hitting funds managed by Blackstone, PGIM, Franklin Templeton, CIFC, and Wellington.
- Yet, despite these setbacks, leveraged loan issuance surged to a record $404 billion in the third quarter of 2025, pushing the overall market to an estimated $2 trillion in size.
- Total size of the global private credit market:
- 2007: $300B
- 2025: $3–4T ($2T US)
- UK government borrowing in the financial year to September 2025 was £99.8 billion; this was £11.5 billion, or 13.1% more than in the same six-month period of 2024!
- Japanese yen falls as Takaichi wins key vote to become next prime minister, Japan’s first female PM.
- Bitcoin/Nasdaq correlation faltering.
- The ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
