Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model over the week ending 22 Sep, CTA positioning in middle distillates remains positive. However, this long positioning softened on 19 Sep and is expected to drop further on 22 Sep. CTA positions in RBOB futures and WTI futures have moved in tandem, rising to nearly -14k lots on 18 Sep before dropping to -16.7k lots on 22 Sep. Normalising these CTA positions (with z-scores from -50 to +50) highlights that RBOB’s positioning climbed above zero on 18 Sep but has eased and is projected to revert to -4.2 on 22 Sep. Meanwhile, although positioning in Brent and WTI futures is skewed to the sell-side, net long positioning remains above its long-term average, signalling room for further downside.
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