Morning Macro Wednesday 14th October 2025
Gold is trading -0.4% lower on the day after reaching its new all-time high of $4179.3/oz in the early morning trading. However, December futures have now reached the most overbought levels in history after reaching a monthly RSI level of 91.8 (Graph 1, Barchart). Expect at those levels funds taking profits!
Meanwhile, Societe Generale revised up its gold forecast to $5000/oz for end-2026, according to Bloomberg, due to strong ETF and central bank flows, which had exceeded its expectations.
Silver is now down over -0.6% after reaching its all-time high at $53.448/oz in the early morning. While in COMEX, Copper futures are now down 4% intraday! (Chart 2, Bloomberg).
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch said Monday. “One of the things we see is that risk premia are relatively compressed right now and valuations are also relatively high and this is why we have been arguing we need sufficient resilience in case market sentiment changes”. Bloomberg’s European credit spreads remain tight, around the lowest in 2018 (Chart 3, Bloomberg).
In the UK the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to August, compared to 4.7% last month – above expectations and marking the highest reading in over 4 years! Employment actually grew by 91k to 34.2 million, supported by more part-time roles and a rise in workers aged 65+. If a country’s job numbers are increasing due to part-time roles or people near the age of retirement finding jobs then a country has big issues! Fewer people held second jobs compared with the previous quarter, though that number was still higher than a year ago at 1.32 million.
Unemployment is up, but UK wage growth accelerated, with average weekly earnings up 5% y/y in the three months to August – the fastest since May and above forecasts. Strong public-sector pay led the change. On inflation-adjusted terms pay rose to 0.8%, while excluding bonuses, both nominal (4.7%) and real wage growth (0.6%) have started rising at a decelerating pace. Nominal pay remains sticky, however, which could complicate inflation control for the BoE.
Beijing has begun imposing special port fees ($56/ton) on vessels that are U.S.-built or U.S.-flagged when calling at Chinese ports, according to an announcement from the Ministry of Transport.
