Morning Macro 1st September 2025
The week starts with precious metals surging higher. Gold up 1.2% (Chart 1, Gold overnight futures move, TradingView) and about to make new all-time highs again while silver breaks above $40 for the first time since 2011, up +2.2% on the day. Readers may remember gold has been our favoured long-term trade since we first highlighted the imminent $2,080 break out on ‘The World of Oil derivatives’ podcast back in Jan 2024.
French and German 30-year yields have today made new cycle highs with the French fiscal outlook particularly weak. German yields highest since 2011. However, the UK is not far behind, just 5bps off its cycle high.
ECB’S LAGARDE SAYS I AM LOOKING VERY ATTENTIVELY AT FRENCH BOND SPREADS SITUATION
The Bitcoin trade looks to be turning sour, today at $108k, from a peak $124k.
It’s not all bad news, if you own Alibaba shares, they’re up 15% on the day after reporting 1Q AI revenue surge.
Chinese Home Sales Slump Extends as Prices Continue to Decline – Bloomberg…. while Chinese PMIs come in broadly in line, mfg, slightly weaker, services slightly stringer….
China Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) 49.4 (expected 49.5) Services 50.3 (expected 50.3)
Japan July Unemployment rate 2.3% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)
US CREDIT CARD TROUBLES RISE: MORE PEOPLE HAVEN’T PAID BILLS FOR 3+ MONTHS — WORST IN 14 YEARS
0DTE options now reflect a record 75% of the Nasdaq’s total options volume. This percentage has TRIPLED over the last 3 years. Furthermore, 0DTE activity in the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, at 65%. Across the 13 most popular tickers, nearly $2 trillion of notional value has been traded PER DAY in 0DTE options so far in 2025. For perspective, total US options notional volume averages ~$4 trillion per day. Investors are taking on unprecedented levels of risk. (The Kobeissi letter)
US House Price Index from FHFA contracted for a third consecutive month in June (hasn’t happened since 2011. (Chart 2, Bloomberg, @LizAnnSonders). With the Year/year change in median price of new single-family home fell to -5.9% in July
A busy jobs data week ahead:
Monday – US Markets Closed, Labor Day. EZ & UK mfg. PMI, EZ unemployment rate
Tuesday – August ISM Manufacturing PMI data, EZ CPI
Wednesday – July JOLTS Jobs data, EZ & UK services PMI< Australian GDP
Thursday – US ADP data, Initial Jobless Claims data, EZ retail sales
Friday – US August Jobs Report, UK retail sales, Canadian jobs data
