Morning Macro 23rd September
Assets that only ever go up!…..Gold (+1.7%), Nasdaq (+0.55%) and S&P500 (+0.44%) continue their effortless trend higher, all making new all-time highs. But elsewhere the VIX index jumped 4%, Bitcoin fell -2.2% and Ethereum fell -5.5%
The US 2-year yield has now rallied 16bp from the FOMC lows but the OIS/fed funds futures still prices 90% chance the Fed cut rates another 25bp on 29th October.
Two sides to every market ……
GOLDMAN RAISES S&P 500 12-MONTH TARGET TO 7200, RECOMMENDS BUYING STOCKS
“This is a fiduciary crisis. Awareness is essential. Nearly 15% of everyone’s 401k is invested in two AI-centric stocks, Nvidia and Microsoft, at all-time high valuations with NO realistic power path and unsustainable growth assumptions. If hyperscalers are going to spend $2T over 5 years in a testosterone-filled capex orgy, we must have an entirely new energy infrastructure in the U.S. to support the growth assumptions. They are passing around the crack pipe in Silicon Valley and Wall St., and no one cares.” (@convertBond)
Large speculators added to net short positions for S&P 500 futures in past week, maintaining their bearish view (Chart 1, Bloomberg)
Nvidia just announced they’re investing $100B into OpenAI……. Hhhmmmm OpenAI uses that money to… pay oracle… who pays Nvidia… who invests in OpenAI
Data today – Flash global services & mfg. PMIs, FEDs Powell speech
