Morning Macro Wednesday 15th October 2025
Oh my gold! Gold made its new all-time high above $4200/oz this morning, now its up nearly 60% this year alone! Equities, silver; everything is up this year. When everything is at record highs at the same time, we are no longer talking about a bull run but a structural shift in the global outlook. (Chart 1, Bloomberg)
Silver is trading just below its all-time highs, now around $52.70/oz, the transatlantic arb remains! According to COMEX data, almost 4.56 million ounces were withdrawn on Monday. Traders in the US are pulling tonnes per day and are sending them to London.
All that while Fed committee members are worried about the US. Fed’s Collins signalled for another 25bps cut in the October meeting.
Meanwhile, Powell struck a cautiously dovish tone, acknowledging a cooling labour market marked by low hiring and low firing, suggesting momentum in job creation has stalled. Most notably, Powell hinted that QT may be nearing its end, saying the Fed is no longer in a system flush with reserves and will slow or pause balance-sheet runoff to avoid liquidity stress in the repo market.
The Fed has been the largest seller of US Treasuries, cutting its holdings by $1.5 trillion since May 2022 under QT. This massive reduction dwarfs foreign activity, as major holders like Japan and China have been less aggressive in unwinding their own US debt positions during the same period.
In China, latest inflation numbers show prices are still under pressure but the worst may be behind us. Consumer prices dropped 0.3% in September – the ninth fall this year – as food costs, especially pork, continued to slide. But core inflation ticked up to 1%, hinting that underlying demand is slowly improving. Factory-gate prices also fell 2.3%, the smallest drop in months, helped by Beijing’s push to rein in excess capacity. It’s not a roaring recovery, but the data suggests China’s economy is at least finding its footing rather than slipping further. (Chart 2, Bloomberg)
Japan’s industrial output fell 1.5% month-on-month in August, deeper than initial estimates and marking the sharpest drop since late 2024. The decline was broad-based, driven by weakness in autos, steel, and electronics, as global trade uncertainty and tepid demand hit manufacturing. On a yearly basis, production slid 1.6%, extending July’s contraction and underscoring the fragility of Japan’s industrial recovery amid external headwinds and political instability.
Political risk continues to simmer, France’s PM Lecornu secured Socialist backing ahead of two no-confidence votes, while Italy approved a draft budget proposing a €4.5bn levy on banks and insurers to fund wage and healthcare support. Greece, meanwhile, faces nationwide strikes as parliament votes on a controversial 13-hour workday law.
