Morning Macro 18th November
Risk assets are getting a hammering across the board: Bitcoin dropped below $90k for the first time since April, S&P 500 dropped 0.9% yesterday and futures down another 0.2% this morning, Nikkei down almost 2% today. MicroStrategy market cap is now lower than the sum of its Bitcoin holdings!
Kalshi pricing a 54% chance of December FOMC maintaining rates and 44% chance of a 25 bp cut. Contrast with OIS pricing a 49.6% chance of a 25 bp cut. Committee rhetoric is split, with Waller one concerned over weak job data opening door to another cut. Delayed September NFPs due for release Thursday will be key
Dollar/yen continues uptrend since April; has risen from low of under 140 to 155.15 this morning. Concerns over Japan-China relations and Japanese inflation weakening yen. Japan PM Takaichi meets BoJ Governor Ueda today.
Bigger picture, dollar showing mixed signals: DXY continues rangebound since April, trading just below 100 points. GBP/USD has found some support above 1.31.
Data today: ADP employment change, Japan trade data
