FLUX INSIGHTS REVIEW
Uncertainty remained the only constant in the oil market this past month. Participants quickly shifted from wearing their “oil glut” hats to “Ukrainian drone attack hats” before ultimately tossing both aside to fret instead about the US government shutdown, the longest on record, which conveniently left a gaping hole in the flow of key data releases at a time when the Fed is leaning ever more heavily on labour indicators to guide its next move. Still, it seems as though all roads in this market have led us back to Ukraine, with a leaked draft of a US-brokered ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine adding another twist. Ukraine has reportedly agreed to a revised version, while the Kremlin has yet to sign the agreement. Just when the market thought it had seen it all, a glitch at the CME on the final trading day of the month provided the cherry on top of an already chaotic period.
