FLUX INSIGHTS REVIEW
Brent crude consolidated during August, with front-month prices trading between $65 and $69/bbl. Technically speaking, prices are in limbo. Brent’s average true range (ATR) is at its lowest since May 2024, and as Bollinger bands narrow, this suggests that prices are primed for a volatility breakout, provided there is a fundamental catalyst. With OPEC+, in principle, agreeing to complete the reversal of its voluntary cuts in September, the market directed its attention towards geopolitics. Peace in Ukraine remains elusive despite President Trump’s attempts at mediation. The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska delivered little, while Zelenskyy’s return to Washington, this time alongside other European leaders, produced only marginal progress. Markets remain unperturbed even as Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries, potentially shutting up to 20% of its refinery capacity.
