Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 23 Jun, we saw an overall 146% increase in CTA net length across the futures benchmarks. More granularly, Brent futures recorded a 183% increase from -15k lots to +18.4k lots this week, its highest level since January 2024. In refined products, RBOB futures recorded a 174% increase to +20k lots on 23 Jun. In distillate fuel oil, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil witnessed a 190% and 138% increase w/w, respectively, to +18.9k lots and +16.8k lots. CTA net long positioning is approaching max long levels across the futures benchmarks. Such one-sided positioning tends to flag a contrarian CTA sell-side signal, which could cap further gains in oil prices. Hence, further rallies in price due to geopolitical risk may be driven by non-CTA speculative players.
Click below to explore our weekly CFTC COT reports, including a new report detailing historical Onyx COT data for key swap contracts.
