The Sep’25 Brent futures contract rallied to $70.71/bbl at 09:41 BST before softening a touch to $70.37/bbl at 11:45 BST. In the news, the UAE’s Energy Minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, stated that oil markets are absorbing OPEC+’s production increases without a significant rise in inventories, indicating continued strong demand. Despite several months of production hikes, OPEC+ has not seen a major build-up in inventories, suggesting the market is in need of more oil. Mazrouei emphasized the importance of stability in the oil market and highlighted that while price fluctuations are important, the focus should also be on ensuring the right price to encourage future investments. In other news, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has adjusted its forecast, predicting jet fuel consumption to reach 8 mb/d by 2027, surpassing 2019’s level but showing slower growth. US immigration policies and global macroeconomic uncertainties are dampening US-bound travel, while domestic air travel in some regions, like China and Indonesia, shows signs of stagnation. As a result, global jet fuel consumption is expected to grow more slowly in the coming years, with demand in 2025 and 2026 forecasted to rise at a rate of just over 1%. This morning a mission was underway to rescue the crew of the Eternity C cargo ship, which sank in the Red Sea following an attack that killed at least four crew members. The attack on 7 July, attributed to Yemen’s Houthi militia, has heightened concerns about supply security in the Red Sea. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.20/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.45/bbl.
