Nov’25 Brent futures opened higher overnight Monday, rebounding from $65/bbl levels and approaching $67/bbl, trading $66.74/bbl by 11:30 BST (time of writing). Prices rose despite the OPEC+ decision to raise output in October by 137kb/d, given that some members were already pumping at near capacity, with supply hikes already priced in. It is estimated that the actual increase in October could be as low as 60kb/d. Sunday’s announcement means that the group will begin to unwind a second tranche of production cuts, in place since April 2023, totalling 1.65mb/d. The Kremlin dismissed Western sanctions as ineffective, vowing they will never alter Russia’s course in Ukraine, even as the US and EU weigh new measures that lifted oil prices and coincide with signs of Russia’s slowing economy. At APPEC, Gunvor warned that US-led sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil, particularly China and India, could significantly disrupt crude flows, potentially cutting global supply by over 1mb/d. Trafigura says India’s oil demand growth, fuelled by urbanisation and rising incomes, will outpace China’s underlying gains in 2025, even as global markets face uncertainty on how to absorb surplus supply. TotalEnergies said strong demand for heavier Middle Eastern grades will keep the Brent-Dubai spread negative despite rising OPEC supply, while US crude arbitrage into Asia remains attractive and Latin America is set to drive global supply growth from 2026. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.24/bbl respectively.
