The Sep’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $69.82/bbl at 09:41 BST before bouncing back to $70.07/bbl. Prices have softened to $69.92/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years, reducing them due to slower Chinese growth. However, the group has raised its longer-term outlook, citing rising oil needs in developing countries. OPEC now expects global demand to average 105 mb/d in 2025, growing to 106.3 mb/d in 2026, and reaching 111.6 mmb/d by 2029. In other news, Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to shut its 300kb/d diesel desulphuriser unit at its Panipat refinery for an upgrade to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) starting next year. The overhaul is scheduled for late this year or early next year, but it won’t impact diesel output as additional units are available at the refinery. The upgraded unit will process used cooking oil to produce 30 kmt of SAF annually. Indian Oil aims to meet India’s target of 1% SAF in aviation fuel by 2027, with a further increase to 2% in 2028. Equinor has discovered gas in the Skred prospect near the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, with preliminary estimates indicating between 0.3 B and 0.5 B standard cubic metres of recoverable gas equivalent. The licensees, including Equinor (46.3% stake), Vaar Energi (30%), and Petoro (23.7%), will evaluate the discovery for potential integration with the Johan Castberg field. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct spread is at $1.15/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spread is at $3.22/bbl.
