The Jun’25 Brent future contract saw price move up to $65.32/bbl at 08:08 BST before dropping down to $64.31/bbl at 11:03 BST. Prices have since bounced back to $64.53/bbl at 12:10 BST (time of writing). In the news, emerging market oil exporters like Angola, Nigeria, and Venezuela have started to feel the pressure from falling oil prices. Angola faced a $200 million margin call last week from JPMorgan on a $1 billion loan backed by its dollar bonds. Nigeria is reworking its budget, initially based on $75/bbl, as the naira faces pressure. Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE can better handle low oil prices given strong reserves, low debt, and economic diversification. On the importers side, Pakistan is considering buying US crude oil for the first time to reduce high tariffs imposed by President Trump’s administration. A government source said the proposal is under review ahead of a delegation’s visit to Washington. The plan could involve buying around $1 billion worth of US crude. In 2024, Pakistan imported 137 kb/d mainly from the Middle East. In other news, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 730 kb/d, down from 1.03 mb/d last month, due to escalating trade tensions. The IEA also sees demand slowing further in 2026 to 690 kb/d. This sharp downgrade comes a day after OPEC also trimmed its forecasts, though the IEA’s cut is more drastic. Finally the front month Jun/July spreads and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.61/bbl and $1.79/bbl respectively.
