The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices fall from $64.66/bbl at 07:50 BST to $63.70/bbl at 08:20 BST. Prices slightly recovered to $64.31/bbl, but fell back down to $63.86/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, president Trump said the US was close to a nuclear deal with Iran, and a senior Iranian official indicated Tehran might halt uranium enrichment if sanctions are lifted. In other news, the IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow to 650kb/d for the rest of 2025 due to economic challenges and rising electric vehicle adoption. The IEA also raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 1.6mb/d, mainly due to expected increases from Saudi Arabia, even as US shale output projections were lowered. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to push oil inventories up by 720kb/d on average this year. Japanese oil companies, including Eneos and Idemitsu Kosan, are scaling back decarbonisation plans like hydrogen and ammonia projects due to rising costs, energy security concerns, and global policy uncertainty. Eneos dropped its hydrogen supply target for 2040, while Idemitsu cut its low-carbon investment budget by 20%. Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras plans to return to Nigeria’s oil industry, focusing on deepwater exploration, according to Nigerian officials. The move aligns with its expanded $111B investment plan for 2025–2029, of which $77B is set for oil and gas exploration and production. Nigeria, eager to boost oil output, views this as a chance to attract fresh investment. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $0.87/bbl respectively.
