Jul’25 Brent futures jumped by $0.60/bbl last night following a CNN report that said Israel is considering a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. These gains have been lost over the morning as the contract softened to $65.95/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, Fuel dealers in Nigeria report ongoing gasoline shortages, despite government claims that the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries were ready six months ago. The facilities, operated by state-owned NNPC, remain largely non-operational, forcing continued reliance on imports and Dangote Refinery. Nigeria has spent over $25B in the last decade trying to revive its aging refineries. The Port Harcourt refinery, though declared partially functional in December 2024, had stopped producing gasoline by March 2025. In other news, India is set to import about 1.8mb/d of Russian crude in May, its highest in 10 months, driven by strong demand for light grades like ESPO, according to Kpler data. Refiners boosted purchases ahead of new EU/UK sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet. Ithaca Energy has raised its 2025 production forecast to 109–119 kb/d, up from 105–115 kb/d, after acquiring an additional 46.25% stake in the UK’s largest gas field, Cygnus, from Centrica on May 20. The Aberdeen-based firm has rapidly expanded, including its 2024 purchase of Eni’s UK assets. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.62/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.72/bbl.
