Despite hitting a high of $69.25/bbl this morning, the Nov’25 Brent futures contract has weakened since, falling below the previous day’s support level of $68/bbl, where it briefly regained support, before eventually sitting at $67.90/bbl at 11:43 BST (time of writing). This bearish shift emerged amid reports that eight members of OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production for October 2025 at a meeting on Sunday. Although various OPEC+ members already overproduce above their required production tables, the optics of a rumoured hike this week remain bearish as they signal the unwinding of OPEC+’s second layer of output cuts, of about 1.65mb/d, well ahead of schedule. In other news, Shell has reported that it will not resume construction on a biofuels facility at its Shell Energy and Chemicals Park in Rotterdam amid rising risk that it would not be competitive. Moreover, Shell’s 404kb/d Pernis refinery in the Netherlands will undergo a “major maintenance shutdown” in mid-September. In broader macro news, the S&P Global PMI for Britain’s services sector increased to 54.2 in August (prev: 51.8), its highest level since April 2024, amid a rise in new business. However, employment levels in the sector continued to decline, and input prices rose sharply. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI index weakened for the first time in five months, to 47.0 from a six-month high of 48.0 in July. Finally, at the time of writing, the front (Nov/Dec’25) and six-month (Nov/May’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.44/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.
