The Nov’25 Brent Futures Contract initially rallied to $69.59/bbl at 06:00 BST before falling to $69.03/bbl at 11:21 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is likely to approve another oil production hike of at least 137kb/d at its October 5 meeting, sources told Reuters. The move follows pressure from the US to lower prices and the group’s shift since April from output cuts to boosting supply. So far, OPEC+ has raised quotas by more than 2.5 mb/d, about 2.4% of global demand. The planned November increase would match October’s hike, though many members are already pumping at capacity, limiting actual gains. OPEC+ still maintains a separate 2 mb/d group-wide cut in place until end-2026. In other news, Saudi Arabia is likely to lift November crude oil prices for Asian buyers by 20–60 cents a barrel, tracking gains in Middle East benchmarks, though rising supply and higher freight rates are expected to cap the increases, a Reuters survey of refiners showed. Arab Light is expected to rise to $2. Nigeria’s oil workers’ union PENGASSAN has ordered members to cut crude and gas supply to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery after mass worker dismissals, escalating a labour dispute that could disrupt fuel supply. The refinery said it laid off a small number of staff due to sabotage, but the union claims over 800 Nigerians were replaced by foreign workers. The standoff adds pressure on the $20 Bn refinery, which recently halted petrol sales in naira due to crude shortages and currency issues, raising concerns of higher fuel prices and economic strain. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.95/bbl and $2.23/bbl respectively.
