The Dec’25 Brent futures contract gapped up by nearly $2 from Friday’s close ($62.15/bbl), reaching $63.93/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports late Friday night to come into effect on 1 November. The escalation was met by cautious optimism on Sunday, as Trump via Truth Social said to not “worry about China; it will all be fine!” China has warned of retaliatory tariffs if Trump does not pull back tariffs. In the Chinese port of Rizhao, a Unipec-chartered VLCC altered its destination over the weekend, following US imposed sanctions on one of the import terminals within the port. The 2mb super-tanker switched to the ports of Ningbao and Zhoushan for arrival on 15 Oct. In other news, estimates by Reuters have shown that crude imports into China increased by 3.9% y/y to roughly 11.5mb/d. This rise has been accompanied by increases in refinery processing rates (81.05%), the highest of 2025. Elsewhere, the Financial Times have reported that the US is providing intelligence to Ukraine, helping to plan long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. On Saturday, Ukraine forces struck Russia’s Bashneft unit in Ufa, the third at this location in 2025. The unit consists of three crude oil processing units (capacity 23.5mb/y), although it is unclear which unit was struck last weekend. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $0.75/bbl, respectively.
