The Jul’25 Brent crude futures opened below $60/bbl overnight Monday, marking a $2 gap from Friday evening’s close. Prices steadily retraced higher above $60/bbl into the morning, reaching $60.51/bbl by 11:00 BST (time of writing). OPEC+ decided over the weekend to further speed up oil output hikes, by 411kb/d in June. The move comes despite weakening prices caused by fears of oversupply and economic weakness linked to Donald Trump’s trade war. Goldman Sachs has reduced their crude forecasts following this, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 in the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, suggesting that the OPEC+ decision marks a shift towards supporting internal cohesion and to challenge US shale supply. President Trump told NBC on Sunday that he’s open to lowering tariffs on China “at some point,” citing their impact on trade between the two countries, while stressing that any future deal must be fair and confirming he has no plans to speak with President Xi this week. Shell is evaluating a potential takeover of BP amid its rival’s stock slump and strategic reset, but any move will depend on further oil price declines and whether a deal would quickly boost Shell’s free cash flow per share. Finally, the front (Jul/Aug) and 6-month (Jun/Jan) Brent futures spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $0.16/bbl respectively.
