The Jul’25 Brent futures contact saw prices jumping between $63.86/bbl and $64.18/bbl in the early morning, followed by a rally up to $64.42 at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Murban crude premiums have fallen to six-month lows as the UAE ramps up output under OPEC+’s accelerated production plan, pressuring rival grades like US WTI in Asia. A record 10mb of Murban have traded this month on the Platts Market on Close platform. Murban is now the cheapest among medium-sour crudes used to set the Dubai benchmark, prompting record deliveries. Murban output is expected to rise in August. In other news, Russia’s top tanker firm Sovcomflot posted a $393 million net loss in Q1, hit hard by new Western sanctions that disrupted operations and cut revenues. The US and EU targeted Sovcomflot and its fleet in 2024 to curb Russia’s oil income. In January, the US expanded sanctions and revoked a license allowing limited operations, forcing some vessels to sit idle. Revenue fell 49% year-on-year to $278.5 million, while EBITDA dropped 69% to $105 million. Kazakhstan is likely to exceed its 2025 oil output target of 96.2 million tonnes due to an early expansion at the Chevron-led Tengiz field, Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said. Output at Tengiz is up 25%, and Akkenzhenov expects the country to surpass its planned production of about 2 mb/d. This move defies OPEC+ efforts to limit supply, though Kazakhstan says it remains committed to the group’s agreement. Finally, the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.55/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.49/bbl.
