The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract rallied from $66.82/bbl at 09:03 BST to $67.09/bbl at 09:27 BST. Prices then fell to $66.74/bbl at 10:30 BST before recovering slightly to $66.85/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Chevron plans to raise its oil output in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale to 30kb/d by year-end, up from 25kb/d currently. While Chevron sees strong long-term potential in Vaca Muerta, it stresses the need for a more stable and predictable regulatory environment to support investment. Despite a short-term slowdown in drilling, production remains strong: Q1 2025 saw oil up 26% and gas up 16% year-on-year. In other news, US crude inventories rose by an estimate of 1.25 mb last week, according to the API. Gasoline stocks increased slightly by an estimated 329kb, though they remain 2% below the five-year average. Distillates rose for the second week in a row, adding an estimate of 1.5 mb, yet remain 13% below the seasonal norm. Serica Energy cut its 2025 production forecast to 29kb/d – 32kb/d (down from 33kb/d -35kb/d) due to compression issues on the Triton FPSO, which slowed output. Normal operations are expected to resume by the end of September. Triton had hit over 25kb/d in August. Jefferies called the issue “negative but manageable,” though it stressed the need for stable operations. A separate three-week pipeline shutdown at the Bittern field in November will also halt production from Serica’s Evelyn and Gannet fields. Finaly, the front-month Nov/Dec spread is at $0.32/bbl and the 6-month Nov/May spread is at $0.97/bbl.
