The Jan’26 Brent futures contract initially softened to $63.60/bbl at 08:55 GMT but met support here and climbed above $64/bbl, sitting at $64.55/bbl at the time of writing (10:30 GMT). Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk curtailed its oil exports after a Ukrainian drone attack. Crude oil shipments via Novorossiysk reached 3.22 million mt or 761kb/d, in October, along with 1.794 million mt of refined products exported, according to a Reuters report. Moreover, as per JP Morgan, around 1.4mb/d of Russian oil (nearly a third of the nation’s seaborne exporting potential) remains in tankers due to slower unloading amid recent OFAC sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Still, Bulgaria may reportedly secure a six-month postponement of the US sanctions, according to Boyko Borissov, former Prime Minister of Bulgaria and leader of Bulgaria’s leading GERB party. In macro news, China’s industrial production grew at its softest pace since August 2024, at +4.9% y/y in October 2025 (prev: +6.5% y/y) due to slower increases in manufacturing activity and mining, some of which may also be attributed to the Golden Week holiday last month. However, Chinese retail sales rose 2.9% y/y in October, marking the weakest growth since August 2024. Moreover, Chinese new home prices fell 2.2% y/y in October, matching the y/y decline in September. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’26) and six-month (Jan/Jul’26) Brent futures spreads sit at $0.48/bbl and $1.04/bbl, respectively.
