The M1 (Sep’25) Brent futures contract climbed from around $68.60/bbl at 08:20 BST this morning to a high of $69.35/bbl at 10:25 BST, but retreated to $68.80/bbl by 11:05 BST. After this, the contract briefly returned to the $69/bbl handle but has since eased to $68.90/bbl at 11:40 BST (time of writing). After announcing new US weapons for Ukraine, US President Donald Trump has threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports following a 50-day deadline unless the Kremlin agrees to a peace deal with Ukraine. In China, fixed asset investment climbed by 2.8% y/y in Jun 2025 (May 2025: +3.7%), well below market forecasts of +3.7%. China’s retail sales also stood at a softer +4.8% in June (prev: +6.4%, exp: +5.6%), although industrial production climbed by +6.8% y/y (prev: +5.8%, exp: +5.6%). India’s June CPI stood at +2.10% (exp: +2.5%), a six-year low, due to declining food prices, prompting expectations for an additional interest rate cut by the RBI this year. The market will now be on the watch for US CPI data, due to be released at 13:30 BST this afternoon. Finally, at the time of writing, the Sep/Oct’25 and Sep/Mar’26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.92/bbl and $2.40/bbl, respectively.
