Onyx Research

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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Softens to $68.63/bbl

Brent eased to $68.63; US evacuates staff amid Mideast tensions; Iraq ops steady; US output seen steady; Cenovus restarts; Total partners with Mistral

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract bounced around $69/bbl, before falling to $68.68/bbl at 10:35 BST. Prices then softened further to $68.63/bbl at 11:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, US has evacuated non-government personnel from several Middle Eastern countries due to heightened tensions. Despite this, foreign energy companies are continuing normal operations in Iraq, according to a senior Iraqi official. The Iraqi oil ministry has not been notified of any staff reductions by energy firms, the official added. In other news, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed EIA projections of a 2026 decline in US oil output, saying current weak prices may slow drilling slightly but likely won’t reduce overall production. The EIA expects output to drop from 13.5 mb/d in mid-2025 to 13.3 mb/d in 2026, citing low prices and shale exhaustion. Wright told Bloomberg it’s too early to confirm a downturn. Cenovus Energy announced on Jun 12 that it has resumed production at its Christina Lake oil sands facility in Alberta after a temporary shutdown caused by nearby wildfires. TotalEnergies has partnered with French AI startup Mistral to develop digital tools aimed at improving industrial efficiency, cutting emissions, and enhancing customer support. The collaboration focuses on building an AI assistant to help optimize project development and operations. This move supports TotalEnergies’ broader push to integrate AI into its energy business, including past collaborations for wind turbine maintenance, electricity trading, and renewable project planning. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.80/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $2.53/bbl.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.