The Sep’25 Brent futures contract rallied to $70.50/bbl at 10:03 BST before softening to $70.01/bbl at 12:00 BST (time of writing). The Oct ’25 contract similarly rallied to $69.83/bbl and softened to $69.36/bbl. In the news, Kuwait’s oil minister Tariq Suleiman Al-Roumi voiced optimism about the oil market, saying OPEC+ efforts aim to maintain balance and energy security, according to KUNA. The group has shifted from cuts to boosting supply, with an additional 548 kb/d scheduled for August. Kuwait remains heavily reliant on oil and faces widening budget deficits, projected to rise from $5.23 Bn in 2023/24 to $20.43 Bn in 2025/26 amid falling revenues. In other news, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said a new energy agreement with Iraq must include a mechanism to ensure full use of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which has a capacity of 1.5 mb/d but is currently offline. The pipeline has been inactive since 2023 following an arbitration ruling ordering Turkey to pay $1.5 Bn for unauthorized Iraqi exports. Bayraktar suggested extending the pipeline to southern Iraq to maximize its use. Russia-backed Nayara Energy has scaled back operations at its 400 kb/d refinery in Vadinar, Gujarat, after new European Union sanctions targeted the company, according to Reuters. The sanctions have hampered Nayara’s ability to export refined products, causing storage constraints and prompting traders to avoid its fuel. As a result, the refinery is operating at 70–80% capacity. The sanctions also triggered leadership changes, with CEO Sergey Denisov replacing the previous chief executive. Finally the front-month Sep-Oct spread is at $0.67/bbl and the 6-month Sep/Maar’26 spread is at $2.32/bbl.
