The Oct’25 Brent crude futures reached a daily high of over $66.30/bbl at 07.47 BST before weakening to $65.78/bbl at 11.28 BST (time of writing). The IEA projects global oil supply to outpace demand through 2026, with output rising 2.5 mb/d in 2025 and 1.9 mb/d in 2026, largely from non-OPEC+ producers. Demand growth is slowing to 680 kb/d annually due to weak consumption in China, India, and Brazil, flat OECD use, and record jet fuel demand in the US and Europe. This is a third lower than January’s estimate and the slowest pace since 2009 outside the Covid slump. They warned that without supply curbs or a demand rebound, market balances risk becoming “bloated” into next year. OPEC raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.4 mb/d, citing stronger expected economic performance in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The biggest change is a projected 0.1 mb/d drop in U.S. shale output next year, versus prior expectations of stability. OPEC projects that in 2025, global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million mb/d y/y, in line with last month’s assessment. A buyer may step in to save Lindsey Oil Refinery, which went into administration in June, putting 420 jobs at risk. Local politicians say there’s interest in keeping it running, though parts of the site also attract offers. The last fuel units shut down, with deliveries to continue until September. Supplying about 10% of UK fuel, mainly to the Midlands and Lincolnshire, the government says closure poses no national supply risk despite £75m losses over three years. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $1.17/bbl respectively.
