Onyx Research

Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Supported Above $68/bbl

The Aug’25 Brent crude futures was stable and trading in a 40c range on Friday morning, supported above $68/bbl and printed $68.20/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). Whilst prices have stabilised at this level, they are set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023 as geopolitical risk premiums evaporated, with the market returning its focus to fundamentals. The U.S. Department of Energy has delayed scheduled crude oil deliveries to the SPR until the end of 2025 due to maintenance, pushing completion as much as seven months behind the original timeline. Gulf shipping costs fell after the Israel-Iran ceasefire, but may rise again if tensions return. The U.S. plans to hold a Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale on December 10, offering 80 million acres with lower deepwater royalty rates to boost industry participation. China’s imports of Iranian oil surged to record levels in June, driven by strong demand from independent refineries and accelerated deliveries ahead of regional tensions, with analysts expecting elevated volumes to continue. The U.S. and China have agreed on a framework to expedite rare earth exports to the U.S., easing trade tensions and addressing supply chain disruptions caused by earlier export curbs amid the ongoing trade negotiations. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.13/bbl and $3.12/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.