The Aug’25 Brent futures contract gapped up overnight, firstly to $74.19/bbl then gapped up again to $77.72/bbl atround 04:00 BST. Prices fell in the morning to $73.36/bbl at 08:09 BTS before bouncing back to $75.16/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). This price surges comes after Israel launched widespread strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear sites, missile factories, and top military commanders in an effort to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran retaliated with about 100 drones aimed at Israel, most of which were reportedly intercepted. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed harsh retribution. In other news, Energean has temporarily halted production from its power FPSO offshore northern Israel following orders from Israel’s Ministry of Energy. The company, which operates in Israel, Egypt, and Europe, notified customers and stakeholders of the suspension. The FPSO is a significant contributor to Energean’s total output. The Trump administration appears unlikely to back the EU’s push to lower the G7-led price cap on Russian oil from $60/bbl to $45/bbl, though options remain for both sides to pressure Moscow. Russian oil exports hit a seven-month high in May, complicating enforcement. The EU may still act unilaterally, proposing a refined product ban and tighter enforcement. Experts say tougher US sanctions on major Russian firms could be a stronger tool. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $1.50/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $4.85/bbl.
