Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
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Onyx Alpha: Time for Normalisation?
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Crude and Distillate swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 09 Jun 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 6 June, CTA net short positions became less negative in crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) alongside refined product futures (gasoil and heating oil). Brent and WTI futures saw a small net change in the week to -20.46k lots and -12.36k lots, respectively. Brent increased by under 8k lots and WTI rose by just shy of 12k lots. In the products, RBOB net positioning remains negative, seeing next to no net change, at -7.8k lots. On the other hand, both heating oil and gasoil saw strong weekly increases to become less negative at -14.1k lots and -10.8k lots.
The Officials: AD-nocking the prices down!
Some OSPs bring joy, others bring pain. Joy for consumers ready to gobble up cheap crude, against pain of producers squeezed by low prices. The Murban/Dubai debacle had ADNOC up in arms, frustrated its ‘most valuable’ grade was setting the benchmark, pricing below the heavier, sourer Upper Zakum. For July, Murban is set at $63.62/bbl, down over 4 bucks from June pricing, with Upper Zakum set at a 10c premium, Das at Murban -55c and Umm Lulu at Murban +15c. The 10c UZ/Murban inversion is minor stuff compared to the downward flat price correction. This is real money! Imagine you produce 4 mil b/d and export 3 mil b/d, (this is just illustrative) but this would mean $12 million less revenue per day or $360 mil less per month. We’ll be talking billions if the market doesn’t recover and persistent overproduction continues. You cannot overproduce and have no price impact. In other words: you can’t have your cake and eat it!
Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.
