Morning macro 15th September
S&P 500 & Nasdaq both make new all-time highs, gold new all time closing high, silver, new cycle high, while consumer sentiment is now lower than the financial crisis lows. Hard for the Fed to cut 50bp though this week with assets so strong.
THE US GOVERNMENT SPENT $345 BILLION MORE THAN IT COLLECTED IN TAXES IN AUGUST
TRUMP: READY TO DO MAJOR SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA WHEN ALL NATO NATIONS STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA
*FRANCE CUT TO A+ FROM AA- BY FITCH; OUTLOOK STABLE
Bearish dollar bets continue into Fed week (Chart 1, CFTC, Bloomberg)
As well as high electricity pricing wrecking UK manufacturing, the shock hike of a REVENUE tax on pharmaceutical companies to 20%+ (up from 5%) has prompted companies like Merk and AZ to pause investment in the UK.
Hedge Funds bought Tech stocks at the fastest pace in 7+ months this week. (Chart 2, @Marlin_Capital)
Gold prices have topped the inflation-adjusted price set 45 years ago.(Chart 3, Bloomberg)
UMICH PRELIM SEPT. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 55.4; EST. 58 – Bloomberg. *Stagflation is hammering the middle class. This sentiment reading is currently just a pinch lower than the worst of the financial crisis, in a range associated with June and July of 2022, when inflation was at 8%. (Chart 4, @ConvertBond, Bloomberg)
ELON MUSK HAS ‘COMPLETED’ POLITICAL SERVICE AND IS BACK AT TESLA
Data this week –
Monday – China retail sales, unemployment rate, fixed asset investment
Tuesday – UK unemployment, EZ industrial production & consumer sentiment, US IP & retail sales
Wednesday – US Federal reserve meeting, UK & EZ inflation, US mortgage applications
Thursday – Australian employment, BUK BOE rate decision, US jobless claims
Friday – Japanese inflation data, UK retail sales
