7 October 2024: 16:30 BST
He finally broke through. Brent flat price eventually ploughed through the $80/bbl resistance level at 16:21 BST after
testing the waters several times. It jumped suddenly to near $80.20/bbl. Likely many stops just above $80/bbl were
triggered and some longs probably took profit, which saw a slide back towards $80/bbl. A second wind took Brent
even further up shortly after the window, and it peaked at $80.84/bbl at 17:01 BST. Lennie believed the geopolitical
risk premium had run its course and markets were ready to snap back to reality with weak macros and refinery
maintenance. His short position isn’t looking healthy this evening and we imagine certain money managers are also
in the lifeboat alongside him – as we noted this morning, many remained positioned short facing a rising tide! And
the shorts are now underwater. The longs are ‘hoping’, and that is a sad word, something bad happens that creates a
short at the expense of lives. Regardless, some operational tightness is expected as Iranian loading ships reposition.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which will initially be published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST).
For any comments, please reach out to us through the emails provided in the signed documents.
