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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.

Brent Forecast: 2nd June 2025

Aug’25 Brent crude futures opened higher at $64/bbl on Monday morning, nearly $1.50 up on Friday’s close. This comes following heightened geopolitical risk as Ukraine launched attacks on Russian airfields and an IAEA report indicating a recent Iranian buildup of its near weapons-grade stockpile. Given the confluence of both bullish and bearish factors, we anticipate crude oil prices to be rangebound and finish this week between $63 and $67/bbl. The key factors affecting price action this week include:

  • OPEC+ Output Hikes
  • Geopolitical Risk
  • Trade Tensions between the US and China  

Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to hike its oil output for the third consecutive month. The group is set to add 411kb/d to the market in July, matching the increases scheduled for May and June. Prices saw a bullish reaction to this, after rumours floated on Friday of the potential for an even larger unwind. Nonetheless, the output hike reaffirms the group’s intention to recoup market share and will be just over halfway through its plan of unwinding 2.2mb/d of voluntary cuts. If this pace continues, the voluntary cuts would be unwound by Q4 this year. Given higher summer oil demand and the strong backwardation in prompt Brent spreads, there is room to absorb additional barrels. Effective increases in OPEC+ output are also smaller, as the degree of overshoot above targets for overproducers is lower. However, as seen last week, any acceleration of the monthly 411kb/d output hike could garner a bearish reaction in the flat price.

Geopolitical risk continues to linger in the background amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran negotiations. The second round of direct peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow begins in Turkey today. This follows Ukraine’s largest long-range drone assault of the war on Sunday, targeting four Russian airfields deep inside Russian territory. In response, Moscow launched 472 drones over Ukraine overnight in its largest drone attack since 2022. While both sides are engaged in negotiations, hopes are dwindling for a quick resolution to the conflict, with implications for the future of sanctions on Russia and the broader perception of geopolitical risk.

Meanwhile, tensions around Iran’s nuclear program persist. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has increased its production of highly enriched uranium over the past three months – a key point of contention in ongoing negotiations. The US submitted a proposal for a renewed nuclear deal, as confirmed by both the White House and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Any breakthrough could lead to sanctions relief and a rise in Iranian crude exports. As it stands, both sides are walking on a diplomatic tightrope with high uncertainty. 

Despite the 90-day truce and tariff thaw reached in Geneva, trade tensions between  China and the US remain elevated. Both sides have accused each other of breaching the recent trade consensus. Beijing has condemned the new US measures as discriminatory, including restrictions on aviation and semiconductor exports, warnings against the use of Huawei chips, and revoking visas for Chinese students. Meanwhile, Chinese exports of critical rare earth minerals have been a source of frustration for US officials, especially with the slower-than-expected pace of approvals. Still, US officials have hinted at a Trump-Xi call in the near future, which could ease tensions and boost market sentiment. 

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.