Brent Forecast: 6th October 2025

View: Cautiously Bullish

Target Price: $65-67/bbl 

The Dec’25 Brent futures sold off to $64/bbl last week, the lowest level for a prompt contract since May 2025. Prices saw their sharpest weekly decline in four months as the market anticipated a greater production boost from OPEC+ ahead of its meeting and a widespread narrative for an oil glut. As of Monday morning, prices opened above $65/bbl following the weekend announcement that OPEC+ agreed to a modest boost in monthly production of 137kb/d. This week, we expect Brent crude prices to rebound higher into the $65-67/bbl level due to the following factors:  

Key drivers:

1. Russia/Ukraine Geopolitical Risk Premium 
2. Overstated OPEC+ Supply Hikes
3. Bullish Technicals 

Russia/Ukraine Geopolitical Risk Premium 

The geopolitical risk premium has risen amid mounting Russian supply risks, as Ukraine has struck at least 15 refineries in Russia since August. Recent drone attacks on the Orsk (6.6 mn mt/y) and Kstovo (17.0 mn mt/y) refineries have intensified concerns over refined product supply.

Moreover, there have been reports of fuel shortages and price rises across parts of Russia. JP Morgan estimates Russian refinery runs have fallen below 5mb/d, implying around 500kb/d of processing capacity offline. While Moscow has increased seaborne crude exports via its western ports, these are now nearing capacity, limiting Russia’s ability to offset refinery losses and the downside for crude prices. 

Overstated OPEC+ Supply Hikes

While OPEC+ has announced another output hike of 137kb/d for November, this was already priced in by the market. Doubts remain over the group’s ability to fully raise output, where a Reuters analysis showed that the group delivered only 75% of pledged increases on average, undershooting the 1.92mb/d target by around 0.5mb/d.

This suggests a thinning of the group’s spare capacity, concentrated mainly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with most other members having limited scope to meaningfully or sustainably boost output. At the same time, heavy international sanctions and ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes could further constrain Russian production. Against this backdrop, OPEC’s production hikes have not triggered a meaningful bearish response, limiting downside pressure on crude flat price.  

Bullish Technicals

Technical indicators suggest that Brent crude prices may have found a temporary floor and move upwards in the short term. Prices found a floor on 2 Oct at the lower Bollinger band, followed by a gravestone Doji was on 3 Oct at the $64/bbl support level, after which prices gapped up higher on the Monday morning open.

Brent has been oscillating around the 10-day moving average, and as prices have diverged recently, there is scope for a pullback towards the moving average near $67/bbl. Furthermore, prices are trending within a tentative symmetrical triangle formed from Q2 highs and lows (white dashed line), supporting the case for a short-term rebound.