The North Sea is choppy as we enter October, and choppiness dominated the Dated Brent market this fortnight, with few signs of this ending. In the last report, the physical diff was strong above a dollar, with a Chinese bull play holding strength and bidding was seen in a few grades. 20 Sep seemed a turning point for the market with BP offering Brent, although PI lifted this. The following week (23-27 Sep) saw strong selling from the US, with Exxon offering Forties and ConocoPhillips offering Ekofisk, with Ekofisk key to setting the curve currently. This US offering helped the phys diff be implied at less than a dollar on 25 Sep and, combined with futures selling, Dated took a dive. In October, following a fairly weak expiry, there is decent strength held in the Dated complex, as PI flipped to selling the diff fell to 65c, where it has been implied steadily. The past few windows have been pretty quiet. PI has stopped its buying and US selling is quieter. The waters are choppy and not so busy.
