Physical differentials peaked at $1.10/bbl on 11 July, before slowly grinding lower to $0.88/bbl by 22 July. The complex found support on stronger WTI structure which was kept Midland grades stateside.
The key theme in the CFDs have been trade houses on the sell-side against refiners on the buy side. Structure peaked on 19 July before coming off following an offered physical on 22 July. In line with this, the Aug DFL rallied to highs of $1.30/bbl before falling to $0.80/bbl.
Deferred European refinery margins experienced fluctuations, initially dropping to the low-$4/bbl region. They subsequently ticked up slightly and then experienced a steady decline, however a sharp uptick on 22 July kept both the Q4’24 and Q1’25 margins around $4.30/bbl levels.
Open interest (OI) for September Brent futures saw a significant decline from 446.6mb to 391.8mb between the 10th and 14th trading days (-12.3%). Despite the decline, OI for September was still relatively higher compared to August, increasing from +8% to +24% above August’s OI during the same period.
