‘Strong Brent expiry to give bulls false hope’ or so the meme goes. Immediately following expiry, the North Sea market saw a dramatic capitulation as the physical turned offered, collapsing to -83c/bbl in a week, the lowest level since January 2023. Weaker demand and poor refinery margins rein over as the bears are fully in control. Gasoil remains in the gutter, and it was now EBOB’s turn to be the weak link. Strength from April failed to hold, and Gunvor, the main buyer in April, suddenly flipped sell-side. The cargoes were numbering over a dozen, and they struggled to clear, reflecting poor demand. In futures, we also had a saturated long market and the geopolitical risk premium was discounted. Amid fundamental and macroeconomic headwinds during the bull play of April, the market lost all hope once Gunvor did a 180, selling Forties and Midland.
