The Mar ’25 Brent futures contract continued to see support this afternoon as it rose from around $75.70/bbl at mid-day to $76.40/bbl at 17.15 GMT (time of writing). China’s manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.5 in December, missing forecasts, as output slowed and export orders shrank amid weak demand and tariff risks. While services and construction showed improvement, this weaker data could prompt the government to boost stimulus measures. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, is visiting India for talks on resuming energy trade, which has plummeted since US sanctions in 2018 forced Indian refiners to stop buying Iranian oil. Bilateral trade fell from $17 billion in 2018-19 to $2.3 billion in 2022-23. US crude oil stocks decreased by 1.18 mb for the week ending 27 Dec, compared to a 4.24 mb drop the previous week and below the forecasted decline of 2.75 mb, according to the EIA. The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey showed Dallas’ energy sector grew in Q4, with activity rising to 6.0 from -5.9 in Q3 and outlook improving to 7.1. Oil production was steady, while gas production edged lower. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr ’25 and Mar/Sep ’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.40/bbl, respectively.
