The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally from $59.42/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.78/bbl at 15:42 BST. Prices have since fallen off and are at $61.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the US and Ukraine have signed a deal to share future profits from Ukraine’s mineral and energy reserves. The agreement also establishes a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund and includes provisions giving the US access to some of Ukraine’s natural resources in return for future security guarantees. In other news, Saudi Arabia may increase oil output starting in June. Sources told Reuters and Bloomberg that the Saudis, comfortable with current low prices, are unlikely to support further supply cuts and may instead boost production to regain market share. Venezuela’s oil exports fell nearly 20% in April to about 700kb/d , the lowest in nine months, after state-run PDVSA suspended most Chevron cargoes over payment concerns tied to US sanctions enforcement. Chevron’s exports to the US dropped 69%, while other buyers like Reliance and Maurel & Prom increased imports ahead of a 27 May sanctions deadline. Meanwhile, Venezuela boosted imports of diluents like naphtha and began exporting a new crude grade, Blend 22. The IMF has cut its 2025 growth forecast for Middle East oil exporters to 2.3%, down from 4% previously, citing falling oil prices, weak demand, and ongoing trade tensions. It now expects oil to average $66.90/bbl due to rising non-OPEC+ supply and reduced global demand. Finally, he front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.60/bbl respectively.
