Onyx Research

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European Window: Brent Above $64.00/bbl

Brent swung between $63.76–$64.39/bbl, last at $64.22. US to let Venezuela license expire. Nigeria, Iraq push output. Jul/Aug at $0.49, Jul/Jan $1.35

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The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon with prices jumping between $64.18/bbl and $63.76/bbl. Prices rallied to $64.39/bbl at 15:31 BST but have since come off to $64.22/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing).  In the news, the USlicense allowing companies to operate in Venezuela’s oil industry will expire as planned on May 27, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said amid reports that the US could extend the license to US supermajor Chevron. US president Trump, who vowed in February to reverse the license, accused Venezuela’s President Maduro of failing to deliver on electoral reforms and migrant returns. Sources told Reuters that Trump envoy Richard Grenell met with Venezuelan officials and offered a 60-day extension for Chevron’s operations. In other news, Nigeria is urging oil companies to boost output, as the country continues to fall short of its 1.8 mb/d OPEC quota, averaging just 1.4 mb/d in Q1, Minister of State for Gas Ekperikpe Ekpo said. Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) recently confirmed ExxonMobil plans to invest up to $1.5B in offshore deepwater projects. Iraq has signed a major agreement with China’s Geo-Jade Petroleum to expand production at the Tuba oil field and build key infrastructure. Geo-Jade already operates Iraq’s Khana field, which is expected to expand output by 2026. Chinese firms now manage over a third of Iraq’s proven reserves and up to 66% of its oil production. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’6 spread is at $0.49/bbl and $1.35/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.