Flat Price
The Dec’25 Brent futures contract battled with the $60/bbl level this afternoon, dipping to $60.11/bbl at 14:00 BST before recovering slightly to $60.63/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters have reported a second Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the last month. The refinery has suspended its 139kb/d CDU along with another primary unit following the attacks on Sunday. In the Russian Orenburg region, according to Reuters, another Ukrainian drone attack struck the Orenburg oil and gas plant, forcing neighbouring Kazakhstan to reduce its Karachaganak oil and gas refinery (capacity 263kb/d) production by 25-30%; Orenburg itself has suspended its intake of Kazakh gas. Elsewhere, Kurdistan crude oil exports have reached 205kb/d since restarting exports in late September. According to local media, fragile deals between the Iraqi government, the KRG, and foreign firms could jeopardise new exports; the federal government in Baghdad has allegedly violated its agreement by failing to pay international oil companies their owned financial dues to cover operational costs. In Brazil, Petrobras has announced its authorisation to conduct exploratory drilling in the Foz do Amazonas region; drilling is expected to begin immediately and last five months. At this time, no oil production has begun. BP has additionally announced its own discovery in the Orange basin of Namibia, encountering reservoirs with favourable petrophysical properties and no verified water contact. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.11 and -$0.30/bbl, respectively.
Crude
Very quiet afternoon in Brent/Dubai with all of the Sing traders out. Brent/Dubai traded rangebound, with Nov Brent/Dubai trading between -$0.24/bbl to -$0.27/bbl. There was some bank selling of Nov Brent/Dubai and Q1, the Q1 traded $0.07/bbl to $0.08/bbl. There was major buying of Dec Brent/Dubai, which traded -$0.20/bbl to -$0.18/bbl. Spreads were completely quiet, with Nov/Dec trading between $0.05/bbl to $0.08/bbl.
More offered this afternoon in Dated with Nov DFL trading down to $0.13/bbl and Dec DFL trading down to $0.20/bbl. Pre window we saw selling of 20th Oct vs 24th Oct down to -$0.04/bbl and selling of 20-24 Oct 1w at -$0.10/bbl. However, we saw buying of 20-24 Oct vs Cal Nov at -$0.12/bbl. We saw buy side interest in 3-7 Nov CFD at $0.23 and 3-7 Nov 2w bid at $0.18/bbl, whilst 3-7 Nov vs Cal Nov was sold at $0.08/bbl. Further down the curve we saw a refiner and major biding 17-21 Nov vs Cal Dec and 24-28 Nov vs Cal Dec, as well as buy side interest in the 22-24 Dec CFD. In the physical window, we saw a trade offering Midland, whilst majors offering Brent and Forties, pushing the implied diff down to -20c/gal. In the paper window, we saw 17-21 Nov CFDs trading at $0.04/bbl and 10-14 Nov CFDs trading up to $0.07/bbl. Post window we saw buy side interest in 26-02 Dec vs Cal Dec and 27-03 Dec vs Cal Dec trading at $0.06/bbl and $0.07/bbl, respectively.
Fuel Oil
This afternoon in VLSFO, front Sing crack was weaker this afternoon, traded from $5.90/bbl to $5.70/bbl. Front Sing spreads saw little interests this afternoon, with Nov/Dec traded at -$3.25/mt. Sing structure down the curve remained better offered, and front Sing 0.5 E/W softened from $28.75/mt to $28.50/mt. In Euro, front crack also came off down to $1.20/bbl as we saw selling in Cal Euro crack at $1.40/bbl which pressured the front crack. Spreads were stable with Nov/Dec trading at -$1.50/mt.
In HSFO, front barge crack was stronger this afternoon with buying in Nov from -$3.15/bbl to -$2.90/bbl. As a result, front 380 E/W softened from -$2/mt to -$3.50/mt. Front barge spreads also went better bid heading into the window, with Nov/Dec trading from $8.75/mt to $9.25/mt. As a result, front barge crack continued to be bid post window traded up to -$2.85/bbl. 380 crack and spreads were quiet this afternoon, with the front crack traded at -$3.40/bbl and the front spread trading at -$0.25/mt.
Distillates
This afternoon in distillates, prompt Sing gasoil spreads were mixed, with Nov/Dec trading rangebound between $1.65/bbl and $1.66/bbl, while Dec/Jan’26 rallied from $0.80/bbl up to $0.84/bbl. The E/W sold off on stronger IPE, with Nov falling from -$18.75/mt down to -$20.25/mt, last hit on screen at -$20/mt post-window. Regrade weakened, Nov initially lifted on screen at $0.52/bbl before getting hit at $0.46/bbl, while Nov/Dec kero eased from $1.57/bbl down to $1.52/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied initially, with Nov/Jan climbing from $14.50/mt up to $17.25/mt before easing back to $15.50/mt, while the Dec crack strengthened from $23.30/bbl to $23.90/bbl before softening to $23.60/bbl. European jet diffs rallied, with Nov moving from $52.25/mt up to $54/mt before turning better offered in the window easing to $53.75/mt, while Dec traded at $51.50/mt. Heating oil spreads firmed, while HOGOs dipped initially to 14.20c/gal before rebounding to 14.8c/gal.
Gasoline
This afternoon in gasoline, EBOB flat price traded end window at $622.50/mt. RBBR’s were slightly stronger with arbs firming from -1c/gal to -0.85c/gal. EBOB cracks were balanced around $14.10/bbl in Nov with Q1 valued at $10.80/bbl. Spreads were stable as well, as Nov/Dec traded at $23/mt end window. E/W was slightly weaker, trading at -$1.80/bbl post window with 92 cracks stable at $12.40/bbl. Nov/Dec softened slightly from $1.65/bbl to $1.60/bbl.
Naphtha
This afternoon in naphtha flat price traded end window at $498.50/mt with MOC better bid. Nov cracks saw better sell side interest but remained stable around -$4.50/bbl, with Q2 bid at -$5.95/bbl. Spreads were weaker, with Nov/Dec getting sold down from $0/mt to -$0.50/mt and Dec/Dec’26 softening from $10.25/mt to $9/mt. E/W was slightly stronger, with Nov trading up from $33/mt to $33.25/mt. MOPJ was quiet due to the Sing holiday, with Nov/Dec trading down from $3.25/mt to $3/mt as we saw Dec flat price buying on lower crude.
NGLs
Relatively quiet afternoon in NGL’s. LST weakens this afternoon with bank selling Jan LST flat price with Nov/Dec, Dec/Jan and Q1/Q2 LST trading -0.75c/gal and -1c/gal and 2.375c/gal respectively. Buyside interest in Jan LST/FEI this afternoon, with trade buying at -$151/mt, seeing Nov LST/FEI trading -$142/mt. US trade buying Q1 LST/FEI at -$148/mt. In FEI, Asian trade buying Dec/Dec at $0.50/mt pre-US open with Nov/Dec FEI trading -$11/mt, with small Chinese buying flow in FEI flat price. Importers lifting Dec FEI/CP at $23/mt. In butane, C4/C3 stronger today with Nov C4/C3 up over 1c/gal on the afternoon, with Q1 C4/C3 trading 16.625c/gal. Nov/Dec C4 ENT trading 0.125c/gal.
