The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slowly rallied up to $64.59/bbl at 14:35 BST before jumping up to $65.03/bbl at 16:43 BST. Prices have since come off to $64.65/bbl at 17:30 BST. In the news, OPEC+ has agreed to create a mechanism to set new oil production baselines for 2027, aiming to reflect countries’ true capacity amid shifting output levels. No immediate policy changes were made, but eight members may agree on Saturday to a July output increase of 411kb/d. Current output cuts remain in place, with some being gradually lifted through October. In other news, Russia may revise the $60/bbl baseline in its budget rule due to falling oil prices, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. The rule currently directs oil revenue above $60/bbl to the National Wealth Fund, while revenue shortfalls are covered when prices drop below that level. With Urals crude recently near $50/bbl and oil revenues down 24%, Russia is now projecting a larger 2025 budget deficit, 1.7% of GDP, up from 0.5%. More from Russia, where sanctioned tankers have recently been involved in ship-to-ship transfers of Russian crude that later arrived in India, Bloomberg reports. India, a top buyer of Russian oil alongside China, prohibits sanctioned vessels from unloading at its ports. Indian refiners maintain they comply with sanctions and the G7 price cap. In May, India is set to import nearly 1.8mb/d of Russian oil driven by increased purchases of lighter grades like ESPO. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.58/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.65/bbl.
