Flat Price
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April’s 3% drop but still exceeds the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other news, Ukraine is urging the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60/bbl to $30/bbl to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said. This comes as the EU and UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and financial networks helping it evade existing restrictions. While the EU is considering a revised cap of $50/bbl, Ukraine wants a more aggressive cut. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned on Tuesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season could disrupt oil production and refining along the Gulf Coast. With around 17 named storms forecast, weather-related shutdowns are increasingly likely. More than 1mb/d of refining capacity, about 5% of US petroleum consumption, could be preemptively halted in the path of major storms. AccuWeather expects 3 to 6 storms to directly hit the US this season, which runs June through November. Finaly, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.67/bbl respectively.
Crude
Very quiet afternoon in Dated, with continued selling in Jun/Jul Dated as front spread continued to come off. We saw the 2-6 Jun 2w roll trade to $0.51/bbl and there was good buying of the Q3 DFL up to +14 Dated-to-lead. In the physical window, we again saw a high lift on the Midland curve and saw a gva trade bidding up mid-curve Forties, pushing the diff up to around +20c. In paper, CFDs were quiet with the 2-6 June CFD trading at $1.10/bbl and the 16-20 Jun CFD at $0.65/bbl. Post-window, we saw the 2-6 Jun vs 16-27 Jun roll offered down to $0.52/bbl and the 25-01 Jul Cal Jul Roll traded at $0.35/bbl.
Fuel
This afternoon in VLSFO, front Sing crack saw some buying heading into the window, with Jun trading from $11.70/bbl to $11.80/bbl. Front euro crack was also a touch stronger, trading from $5.65/bbl to $5.80/bbl. In euro structure, we saw some buyside interests in the front, with Jun/Jul trading from $6.75/mt to $7/mt. Euro crack saw some selling post window, which softened it to $5.70/bbl.
In HSFO, 380 structure in the front saw buyside interests heading into the window, with Jun/Jul trading from $18/mt to $18.75/mt. 380 crack also strengthened off the back of the stronger front structure, trading from $3.55/bbl to $3.70/bbl. As the afternoon progressed, we saw aggressive buying in both front barge crack and front barge spread, with the crack trading up to -$0.35/bbl from -$0.55/bbl and Jun/Jul trading from $9/mt to $9.50/mt. Structure down the curve was supported with Jul/Aug trading at $9.75/mt.
Distillates
This afternoon in distillates, there was continued selling in the Sing gasoil spreads, Jun/Jul sold down to $0.21/bbl as the E/W remained rangebound in Jun, trading up a tick to -$17.00/mt while the Q4 was better offered, trading at -$14.75/mt. The prompt regrade was sold down to lows of -$1.04/bbl as the 2H combos saw some buyside interest on lower Kero backend Kero cracks.
ICE gasoil spreads softened into the afternoon, the Jun/Dec to lows of $10.50/mt as the cracks similarly continued to weaken, Jun to lows of $17.10/bbl. European jet diffs continued to come off in the prompt, the Jun to $50.75/mt as the Q3 traded down to $47.50/mt. Heating spreads similarly softened, as did the HOGOs before both recovering post-window, the Jun to 14.0 c/gal.
Gasoline
This afternoon in gasoline EBOB flatprice traded end window at $16.05/bbl on a crack equivalent with matching better bid. The arb got sold into this afternoon down to lows of 17.45c/gal just after the window with RBBRs stronger in the afternoon closing the window around $22.75/bbl. There was good crack buying in the back supporting the front crack with Q4 and Q1 respectively trading at $7.2/bbl and $6.5/bbl through the afternoon. Spreads buying came in as the front firmed where we saw Jun/Jul buying at $8/mt just after the window and Aug/Sep well bid at $14.5/mt. Gasnaps were on the high end of recent ranges and saw refiners scaleback selling up to $133/mt in Jun. E/W softened more as EBOB went better bid in the afternoon with the front hit down to -$7.1/bbl and the Jun/Jul E/W box was offered down from flat to -$0.03/bbl.
Naphtha
In naphtha, flatprice traded end window at -$4.15/bbl on a crack equivalent with matching better offered. The front crack was rangebound through the afternoon trading down to lows of -$4.3/bbl and highs of -$4.15/bbl as crude came off and in Q3 some buying came in around -$4.55/bbl up to -$4.4/bbl after the window from tradehouses. Jun/Jul traded at $6.5/mt with the front better offered and the 4/1 was still offered at $0.6/bbl through the afternoon. There was Chinese buying MOPJ flatprice through the afternoon and the Q4 E/W was bid trading at $21/mt pushing the front E/W up to trade up to $23.25/mt.
NGLs
This afternoon in NGL’s, LST was weaker on a crude percentage basis with structure across the curve weaker. In front, we saw Jun/July and July/Aug trade lower to -0.125c/gal and flat respectively whilst in the back we saw Q4/Q1 and Q1/Q2 26 also trade lower to 0.75c/gal and 7.125c/gal respectively. Arbs were broadly unchanged with June trading at -$137/mt whilst 2H traded slightly lower at -$136/mt; FEI/CP softened in the front owing to crude with July and Aug trading down to -$24/mt and -$4/mt respectively. FEI structure came off in the front with July/Aug trading down to -$1/mt whilst in the back we saw Dec/Dec trade lower at $45/mt; E/W was slightly stronger with June implied at $73/mt owing to Europe being better offered, in prompt Euro structure we saw Jun/July trade down to -$4/mt from -$2/mt. Butane was slightly weaker with Jun C4/C3 trading down to 10.75c/gal, whilst structure also weakened. In the front, we saw Jun/July tr ade down to -0.375c/gal whilst in the back we saw Q4/Q1 trade down to 2.25c/gal.
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