Jul’25 Brent futures saw heavy losses this afternoon, from $62.80/bbl at 16.35 BST to lows of $60.80/bbl at 16.55 BST before it retraced slightly to $61.30/bbl at 17.10 BST (time of writing). Reuters reported that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports (including re-exports) rose by 13.1%, signalling progress in diversifying its economy. However, total merchandise exports fell by 4.5% while imports rose 12.5%, narrowing the trade surplus to SR272.6 billion. Oil’s share of total exports dropped to 73.1%. Nexanteca reported that the Middle East is projected to boost oil refining capacity by 618 kb/d by 2029, led by Iraq and Iran, enhancing its net export potential to nearly 7 mb/d by 2040. Key projects in Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, and Oman are underway, while others in Saudi Arabia and the UAE await investment decisions. According to the EIA, US crude inventories fell by 2.696 mb last week (exp +0.39mb). Cushing stocks rose by 682kb, gasoline dropped 4mb, and distillates increased by 0.937mb. Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.92/bbl and $2.49/bbl, respectively.
