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European Window: Brent Fall to $63.14/bbl

Brent dips to $63.14; US crude stocks fall; Libya tensions may disrupt exports; Kazakhstan rejects cuts; OPEC+ eyes hike; spreads remain elevated.

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The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell most afternoon to $63.14/bbl at 15:18 BST. Prices have risen slightly to $63.43/bbl at 17:40 BST(time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude inventories fell by 2.8 mb last week to 440.4 mb, defying expectations for a slight increase. Gasoline and distillate stocks also dropped by 2.4mb and 724kb, respectively. Refinery runs and utilization rates declined, while crude imports fell by 532b/d. Cushing hub inventories rose slightly by 75k/b. In other news, Libya’s eastern government may declare force majeure on oil exports due to alleged assaults on the National Oil Corporation (NOC), though NOC denies any attack. The eastern faction, aligned with General Khalifa Haftar, controls many oilfields and may relocate NOC’s HQ to safer cities it controls. Despite recent clashes in Tripoli, NOC assures operations remain unaffected. International oil firms like BP, Eni, and Weatherford have recently resumed activities in Libya after years of conflict-related withdrawal. In OPEC related news, Kazakhstan has told OPEC+ it cannot cut oil production, citing contractual limits with international consortiums that control over 70% of its output and technical challenges at older, state-run fields. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said the country may even raise output later this year. Deputy Energy Minister Alibek Zhamauov added that OPEC+ is expected to announce a new output hike at its Saturday meeting, with the exact volume to be confirmed then.Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and  $1.96/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.