Onyx logo
Onyx Research

Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.

European Window: Brent Falls to $64.37/bbl

Brent fell to $64.37/bbl as Spain refinery outages, Greek return to Urals trade, and Big Oil dividend concerns weighed on sentiment.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $65.81/bbl at 14:30 BST before falling off to $64.37/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, a massive power outage hit Spain and Portugal, disrupting flights, traffic, hospitals, and businesses. Power started returning in parts of Spain, but full restoration could take hours. Several Spanish oil refineries, including both operated by Moeve and Petronor’s Bilbao refinery shut down. Moeve, owned by Mubadala and Carlyle Group, confirmed its plants were halted, while Repsol, Spain’s largest refinery operator, has not yet replied to a Reuters request for comment. Greek shipowners are re-entering the Russian Urals oil market as falling prices push crude below the $60/bbl Western price cap, allowing them to legally provide transport and insurance, three sources told Reuters. Companies like Minerva Marine, Dynacom, and TMS Tankers resumed shipments in April after being absent last year. In other news, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are due to report their earnings this week, with investors focusing on how falling oil prices could impact dividends and share buybacks for the rest of 2025. Lower oil prices, have raised concerns that Big Oil could cut back on returning cash to shareholders. Exxon is seen as better positioned to maintain its payouts compared to Chevron, which might reduce buybacks if weak prices persist.  Finally the front month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $1.03/bbl and $2.05/bbl respectively.

Share on

Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.